Last updated on December 27th, 2021
Mathematical analysis of sports betting is a versatile approach to predict outcomes that builds on finding value bets and applying bankroll management strategies.
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Many professional punters and even tacticians have struggled to come up with specific strategies for Mathematical Betting.
In this article, we will help you to figure out what mathematical bets are in general and delve into some of its tactics. We will also discuss the margin and value bets.
Mathematical Betting Formulas and Strategies
Over a long period of time, many professional gamblers and strategists have worked together to come up with certain betting formulas that punters can use for effective and profitable bets. Here are the three betting systems we think that is appropriate for your math bets:
It will be difficult for beginners to understand all the tactics mentioned above at once. Therefore, it is worth understanding fundamental terms and concepts such as margin. Margin is the commission or profit made by bookmakers.
After a match or competition, the bookmaker has a chance to go into the red. But if we consider profit in the long run, the margin will give the company an increase in profit.
Mathematical calculation of bets can be made according to the formula: P = 1 / K, where K is the odd coefficient. And the margin can be calculated based on the formula: M = (S-100) x 100%.
As an example, consider the games of Juventus and Milan. Judging by the quotes (1.6 for a Juve victory, 4.20 for a draw, 5.6 for a Milan victory), we can calculate the probability:
P1 = 1 / 1.6 = 0.625 (Juventus victory)
X = 1 / 4.2 = 0.2381 (Draw)
P2 = 1 / 5.6 = 0.17 (Milan victory)
Consequently, the margin will be equal to the sum of our calculations, which is 1.04. Subtract one from this amount and multiply by 100 percent. As a result, we get the margin that the bookmaker pays for this match which equals 4.17 percent.
While the gamblers can use the concept of value bets to bypass this margin. The value we’re talking about here is the combination of how likely a bet is to happen and how much profit you will gain if you’re right.
This probability is different compared to the bookmaker odds perceive it to occur. Because as mentioned above, bookies add a betting margin to them.
So to sum it up, a mathematical betting strategy is based on expected value. It is expressed by the formula N x F x (K x P – 1). N – value of concluded wagers, P – probable value according to calculations, K – odds, F – bets.
It will be a matter of using this formula and considering important game conditions to determine if a selection has true value or not (overvalued by sportsbooks).
If you can correctly calculate your profit in a short period of time and your mathematical predictions for value bets are correct, then, there is a probability of winning in store. And with VOdds’ platform, there’s always room to win and profit from sports bets thanks to high value odds.
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If your main sport is basketball, read our article “5 Common Mistakes in Basketball Betting You Should Avoid” so your basketball bets will be more effective!